Jun 22, 22
The perils of predicting perils: (mis)calculating wet-bulb temperature
Many assumptions lurk behind climate risk assessments. Small errors in the average can mean large errors in the tail risk.
Jun 7, 22
Can we predict global warming using only statistics?
Not if it is unprecedented and nonlinear. You can't do statistics with a sample size of less than one. Science is our only hope.
May 24, 22
Why are the (climate) numbers so round?
Climate target numbers are approximate. Their roundness reflects that.
May 10, 22
How to judge a model beauty contest?
Model meritocracy is a good idea, but the devil is in the details
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