Did the flapping of a butterfly's wings in Brazil (or elsewhere) cause a heatwave in Texas? Yes, and climate change made it worse. That's the simple explanation.

El Niño is not Global Warming (except in Global-average Land). They have different physical causes and different spatial impacts, even though, arithmetically, they both raise global-average temperature.

The Fed’s new hurricane-based risk assessment is well-intentioned but poorly formulated. Since future hurricane probabilities are hard to predict, a simple storyline approach would have been better.

We cannot predict our weather universe but we can choose our emission multiverse

Irreducible uncertainties associated with internal variability and human actions limit our ability to predict long-term climate change. Higher model resolution can help, but it is not a silver bullet.

Many assumptions lurk behind climate risk assessments. Small errors in the average can mean large errors in the tail risk.